Four-Lap Fight: Stacked Field Creating Epic Battle for 200 Freestyle Olympic Gold

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Lukas Martens -- Photo Courtesy: Andrea Staccioli / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto

Four-Lap Fight: Martens, Richards, Popovici to Highlight Race for 200 Freestyle Olympic Gold

Remember when it appeared David Popovici would dominate the men’s 200 freestyle for the foreseeable future? That was the status quo heading into last year’s World Championships, with Popovici having missed the Olympic podium in 2021 by just two hundredths before becoming world champion in 2022 and then swimming the fastest time ever in a textile suit, a 1:42.97 surpassed only by Paul Biedermann and Michael Phelps during the polyurethane-suit era. At the same European Championships where he went 1:42, Popovici broke a 13-year-old world record in the 100 free.

Well, that storyline quickly changed last July when Popovici stunningly fell apart down the stretch of the 200 free final at Worlds as British swimmers Matt Richards and Tom Dean surged ahead for an unlikely 1-2 finish while Korea’s Hwang Sunwoo took bronze, with Popovici fourth in 1:44.90. He ended up departing Fukuoka, Japan, without any medals.

Now, three months out from the Paris Olympics, and there is a tight crowd atop the rankings in the 200 free. Five men have already clocked 1:44s this year, and the results have already locked Dean, the defending Olympic gold medalist in the event, out of the individual race in Paris. At the 2023 Worlds, Austria’s Felix Aubock and Japan’s Katsuhiro Matsumoto swam off for the ninth spot in the 200 free final after both clocked 1:45.97 in the semifinals, but given the rising depth in the event, we can expect a much quicker cutline when it comes to making an Olympic final later this year.

There have been four key moments so far in 2024 in setting up the 200 free Olympic landscape, beginning with the final at the World Championships in Doha, Qatar, a meet skipped by a majority of elite swimmers to prioritize their Olympic preparations. The winner there was Hwang, who went 1:44.75 for his first win at a major long course meet, having previously secured gold at the last two editions of the Short Course World Championships and medals at the two previous long course meets.

Also breaking 1:44 in Doha was Lithuania’s Danas Rapsys, who recorded his finest long course performance in years with a time of 1:44.97 in the semifinals before swimming just a tick slower in the final. Rapsys, who will turn 29 in May, touched first in the event at the World Championships back in 2009, but he was disqualified for a false start.

Matt Richards — Photo Courtesy: Morgan Harlow/British Swimming

Next up, the British men battled it out for individual spots in Paris, with Richards securing the win at the country’s selection meet in 1:44.69, six hundredths clear of Duncan Scott (1:44.75). That left Dean, at 1:45.09, in the unlucky third-place spot.

Weeks later, Popovici clocked 1:45.10 for his quickest performance of the year at the Romanian Championships. The mark was quicker than Popovici recorded a similar time in the calendar prior to his world-title-winning, world-record-breaking 2022 summer, and the result suggested that Popovici has embraced the need to “train better” that he discussed at the conclusion of his disappointing Fukuoka campaign.

The most recent development in the 200 free occurred at last week’s German Championships, and it came from a swimmer who scratched the event at last year’s World Championships. Lukas Martens has built an impressive résumé in the 400-meter race, with medals at three consecutive World Championships plus a European title in 2022, but the 200 was an afterthought. Or at least it was before Martens clocked 1:44.79 leading off Germany’s 800 free relay at the 2023 Worlds.

Saturday evening in Berlin, two days after nearly breaking the world record in the 400 free, Martens blasted a 200 free performance of 1:44.14, suddenly making himself the seventh-fastest performer in history. The men ahead of him comprise an elite club: Biedermann, Phelps, Popovici, Yannick Agnel, Danila Izotov and Ian Thorpe. Richards, Dean, Scott and Hwang are far more decorated performers in the 200 free, but none has ever been that quick.

Several others swam 1:44s in 2023 and have the capabilities of doing so again this year: China’s Pan Zhanle is better in the 100 free, an event in which he now holds the world record, but he clocked 1:44.65 for the fourth-best time of 2023. For Australia, the top threat is currently Max Giuliani, who swam a best time of 1:44.79 in December. Giuliani will try to qualify for his first Olympic team in June, a few weeks before his 21st birthday in early July.

The United States’ Luke Hobson topped out at 1:44.87 at last year’s Worlds, and he claimed 200 free bronze at the Doha meet, seven hundredths ahead of Martens. Seven weeks later, Hobson sizzled at the NCAA Championships, swimming the fastest 200-yard free time ever at 1:28.81 while also clocking an impressive result in the 500 free, only to be overshadowed by the dominance of Leon Marchand. Hobson looks like the top American contender in this event, although it would not be surprising if another U.S. swimmer broke 1:45 at the country’s upcoming Trials.

All this sets up an intriguing showdown with medals at stake in Paris. Will the British duo of Richards and Scott be able to maintain their country’s excellent recent track record in the event? How will Martens handle his first major meet as a serious contender in the 200 free? Who will be able to execute their strategy to perfection in the final?

At the Tokyo Games, Hwang blistered the first portion of the race with a sub-50 opening split, only to falter badly down the stretch and fall to seventh. Winning a major title in the 200 free requires an aggressive start to the race to maintain contact with the field but also enough energy left in the tank to come home. The gold medal almost always goes to the swimmer with the quickest or second-quickest final 50 meters.

Can Popovici rebound from his down year and return to 1:42 form? Doing so would surely put the gold medal out of reach of any other competitors.

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Kudzai Makova

10 days ago

Yannick Agnel’s 1.43.14 from 2012 London Olympics remains the best time in a textile suit… Anyone who cracks 1.44.00 will almost certainly medal. Racing at the Olympics is about winning more than time… I think winning time will be around 1.43.65 and my pick is Popovici

Kudzai Makova

10 days ago

How could I forget Popovici’s 1.42.97 from 2022. If he can get close to that, he will almost certainly win the gold medal